An analysis of judgment research analyses
Article Abstract:
The issue of data analysis is explored using two types of tasks, in light of drastic changes in conclusions about human judgment over the past 25 years. In one task, subjects estimate their confidence that a statement or forecast is true using a scale of 0 to 1. In another, subjects make a binary choice and estimate from 0.5 to 1 their confidence that their choice is correct. Results show differences between the two conditional response distributions and between functions of these differences, which are basic indicators of a subject's performance. For instance, the subject's ability to discriminate true from false for a particular task is indicated by the difference between the mean responses conditional on true and false items, respectively.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1996
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The negative effect of probability assessments on decision quality
Article Abstract:
Two experiments appear to produce results which contradict the widely-held view known as Information Reduction (IR), which states that uncertain data can be reduced to numerical probabilities without having an influence on preferences. Both tests indicate that less account is taken of payoffs when making a risky choice once the decision maker has forecast the probabilities of relevant future happenings, going against the independence and maximization theories derived from the IR view. It can thus be stated that explicitly stating numerical probabilities may have a damaging effect.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1993
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Seeking subjective dominance in multidimensional space: an explanation of the asymmetric dominance effect
Article Abstract:
A theory of dynamic choice reconstruction was proposed to explain the asymmetric dominance effect. The theory is based on dominance seeking concepts wherein the decision maker seeks ways to simplify a task. Results validated the assumption that weights and subjective value are constructed during the choice task in a manner sensitive to the particular properties of irrelevant alternatives.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1995
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