Editors can lead researchers to confidence intervals, but can't make them think

Article Abstract:

Since the mid-1980s, confidence intervals (CIs) have been standard in medical journals. We sought lessons for psychology from medicine's experience with statistical reform by investigating two attempts by Kenneth Rothman to change statistical practices. We examined 594 American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) articles published between 1982 and 2000 and 110 Epidemiology articles published in 1990 and 2000. Rothman's editorial instruction to report CIs and not p values was largely effective: In AJPH, sole reliance on p values dropped from 63% to 5%, and CI reporting rose from 10% to 54%; Epidemiology showed even stronger compliance. However, compliance was superficial: Very few authors referred to CIs when discussing results. The results of our survey support what other research has indicated: Editorial policy alone is not a sufficient mechanism for statistical reform. Achieving substantial, desirable change will require further guidance regarding use and interpretation of CIs and appropriate effect size measures. Necessary steps will include studying researchers' understanding of CIs, improving education, and developing empirically justified recommendations for improved statistical practice.

Public affairs, Comparative analysis, Speeches, lectures and essays, Medical research personnel, Medical researchers, Confidence intervals

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Accuracy and confidence in person identification: the relationship is strong when witnessing conditions vary widely

Article Abstract:

An experiment was performed to test the hypothesis that both accuracy and confidence (AC) in eyewitness identification depended on the person's capability to determine the target. It was suggested that dominant AC relationships were detected under conditions that increased the difference in ability to identify the target. Th role of metamemory was cited in measuring the confidence with which identifications were made and that manipulated conditions gave three levels of identification accuracy.

Research, Identification (Psychology), Eyewitness identification

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Replicability, Confidence, and Priors

Article Abstract:

An explication of a method for computing replicability probability is presented, addressing errors and corrections, prior ignorance, paradoxes, and reference sets.

Methods, Tests, problems and exercises, Statistical sampling, Sampling (Statistics), Probabilities, Probability theory

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