Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze how well aggregate frequency formats protect against biases associated with single-event probability judgments. Three specific cognitive illusions were examined, namely, the planning fallacy, overconfidence in knowledge and base-rate neglect. Results indicated a number of challenges in translating insights into directional signs that individuals can utilize to enhance their intuitive predictions.

Psychological aspects, Research, Decision-making, Decision making, Intuition, Judgment (Logic)

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Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: diagnosing case-based judgment

Article Abstract:

Probability judgment based on the following patterns, overconfidence, conservatism, ecologically perfect calibration or case-based judgment was examined through the random support theory model. Five studies on probability judgment in a simulated stock market setting and comparison with real-world expert judgment suggest that case-based judgment pattern is more predominant.

United States, Usage, Study and teaching, Statistical methods, Decision theory

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Collaborative planning and prediction: does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation?

Article Abstract:

Time completion predictions for task performed individually and in a group and actual completion time are explored for the optimistic bias displayed in estimation. Findings indicate that optimistic predictions were higher for tasks with group discussion and impacted the participants tendency to focus.

Canada, Methods, Analysis, Time management, Task analysis

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