Improving predictive accuracy with a combination of human intuition and mechanical decision aids

Article Abstract:

The use of human intuition in combination with mechanical decision tools to improve predictive accuracy was investigated. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses of the intuitive combination of human judgment and mechanical prediction under different information conditions were examined. Experimental results show that mechanical prediction is better than human intuition when based on the same information. However, a combined approach is the most effective when judges have access to relevant information not captured by the model.

Psychological aspects, Forecasting, Probabilities, Probability theory, Intuition

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The interactive effects of task and external feedback on practice performance and learning

Article Abstract:

The interaction between task and external feedback interventions on practice performance and learning in organizations was investigated. To this end, the simultaneous provision of task and external feedback and the role of task feedback in the development of error detection and correction skills were analyzed. Results show that external feedback consistently improves performance during practice but impedes learning when there is little feedback. On the other hand, task feedback is beneficial to learning during practice.

Performance, Learning, Psychology of, Learning theory (Psychology), Task analysis, Feedback (Psychology), Feedback (Communication)

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Effects of a relative-frequency elicitation question on likelihood judgment accuracy: the case of external correspondence

Article Abstract:

The effects of a relative-frequency elicitation question on the external correspondence of likelihood judgments in individuals were investigated. Three experiments that used a standard general-knowledge task were conducted for this purpose. Results show that judgments made in response to the relative-frequency elicitation question tend to be lower, exhibit less scatter and express total certainty less often than judgments made in response to the probability elicitation question.

Social aspects, Decision-making, Decision making, Judgment, Judgment (Psychology), Probability learning

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