The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty

Article Abstract:

The sure-thing principle (STP) states that a choice which holds under any of two circumstances still holds regardless of which circumstance occurs. Violation of the STP is called the disjunction effect. The latter is demonstrated by studies wherein two groups of subjects were asked to make decisions under conditions of either certainty or uncertainty. Results showed that even when the implication of the subjects' choices were the same for both groups, they each made different choices. This suggests that the reasons for different choices are obscured and this leads to disjunction.

Psychological aspects

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Thinking through uncertainty: nonconsequential reasoning and choice

Article Abstract:

Savage's sure-thing-principle (STP) was examined in several experiments. People generally act on a decision if they know the outcome of a previous action even if it were negative, but do not act on the face of uncertainty. People are reluctant to think consequentially as hypothesized, for a number of reasons. First, there is the requirement to hold something as true even if it were not true. Second, if a plausible alternative exists, people generally do not want to devote much time thinking through all the possible scenarios in decision-making.

Reasoning

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Choice under conflict: the dynamics of deferred decision

Article Abstract:

The dynamics of deferred decision was studied wherein subjects were given multiple choices. Results showthat multiple choices produce conflict when these are equally attractive. Decision is more likely deferred or other options are considered when the offered set of choices is improved or enlarged causing increased conflict. Thisis in contrast to the principle of value maximization wherein the option with the highest value is chosen over others with lower values.

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