Beware: the business cycle has not been repealed

Article Abstract:

Economists have generally been very reluctant to discuss the possibility that the world economy could sink into recession in the early years of the 21st century. It must be acknowledged that recession could very well take place and that it could result in a significant change in relations between East Asia, Europe and North America. Most observers expect any economic downturn to be minor, but there are in fact indications that the next recession could be quite serious.

Administration of Urban Planning and Community and Rural Development, Economic Development NEC, Recessions

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Where will the next shock come from?

Article Abstract:

Investment bank Kleinwort Benson has recently developed an indicator of the reliability of economic forecasts which compares the consensus forecasts every month for a number of indicators of the UK economy with what actually happens. This allows an assessment of how accurate forecasters as a whole have been about economic performance. In 1994, the economy performed better than forecasters had expected, while in 1995 its performance was worse than had been predicted.

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New year will bring more negative surprises

Article Abstract:

Forecasts for economic performance in 2002 are assessed. It is argued that optimistic mainstream forecasts should not be dismissed, but that they should be viewed with caution.

Financial Forecasting, Business forecasting

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