Minford claims prize as doomsayers miss target

Article Abstract:

The monetarist model created by Professor Patrick Minford produced the only forecast for the UK economy in 1999 that was reasonably accurate on the three key forecasts for underlying inflation, growth and the unemployment rate. This model was used by the forecasting team at Liverpool University, which was one of two winners of The Independent's 1999 Golden Guru award. The other winner was Chancellor Gordon Brown, who was confident enough to make an optimistic prediction at the beginning of 1999.

Achievements and awards, Economic forecasting

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Theorists should admit they make mistakes

Article Abstract:

There have been a number of examples over recent years of how excess certainty can negatively affect the world economy. This has been particularly clear in developing countries. It must now be obvious to everybody that markets are not sufficient, and it must be acknowledged that economic theories have in the past been responsible for famine, war and the collapse of entire civilizations. Economists are now beginning to recognize that there are still very basic questions to be asked.

Strategy & planning, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Economists, Analysis, Column, Economics, Economic development, Study and teaching

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Will the pound decline enough to save exports?

Article Abstract:

The prospect of sterling entering a period of sustained decline will be a key issue in future interest rate decisions. The problem with anticipating whether the exchange rate will drop is that there is only limited understanding of why it rose. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee emphasizes that it is not targeting a weaker exchange rate. However, the performance of sterling will be the determining factor for interest rates.

Forecasts, trends, outlooks, Interest Rates, Economic aspects, Prices and rates, Forecasts and trends, Pound (United Kingdom)

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