Forecasting the global AIDS epidemic
Article Abstract:
Mathematical models have been developed to predict the epidemiology of AIDS throughout the world. They show the trends of the spread of disease and how certain factors, such as the use of condoms, can slow transmission of the AIDS virus. These models can help determine health care policies. However, some epidemiologists question if the current models are accurate enough to use. One of the reasons for this is that the models are based on inaccurate data. Many models presently exist, but the predictions obtained from these models are rarely the same. The models use different approaches. Scientists who work on three types of models that are considered to be the most reliable convened at a workshop in July 1991 to compare their predictions using the same data base. The data had to be standardized before they could be used in the various models. For example, risk groups had to be categorized. The data will be compared, with results available in September 1991. Preliminary data show that two of the models are in 80 percent agreement. The preliminary data demonstrate that condom use or reducing the number of sexual partners will decrease the rate of acquiring the AIDS virus. A third approach to reducing the incidence of AIDS is the treatment of other sexually transmitted diseases. Preliminary data suggest that this would not affect the rate of virus transmission. Some scientists think that the models should be perfected before they are used to predict the transmission of the AIDS virus throughout the world. However, others think that the models do not have to be completely accurate before they can be used as general guides for policy development. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1991
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Ivory identity crisis still unsolved
Article Abstract:
Research indicates that a method developed in 1990 to identify ivory from different areas of Africa is not as useful as originally hoped. The method uses isotopic values to distinguish among ivory from various sources, but many of the isotopic values are too variable to be forensically useful.
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1995
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Is the geological past a key to the (near) future?
Article Abstract:
Paleontology is becoming an applied science as researchers study past climatic changes to improve the accuracy of climate models. Problems using geological data to improve climate simulations are discussed.
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1993
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