In search of Methuselah: estimating the upper limits to human longevity

Article Abstract:

Longevity has increased dramatically during the last 125 years to the point where a person born today has a life expectancy of 80 years. Improvements in mortality for people younger than 50 have been so extensive that further reductions, to have a significant impact on longevity, must come at ages above this level. This has traditionally been difficult, and few gains in longevity for people over 50 had been made until the last 100 years. Would further declines in mortality produce a better, more active old age, or simply more frail, dependent elderly people? The answer has implications for the design of social services and programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Several methods commonly used to estimate longevity are evaluated and estimations are presented of the magnitude of reduction in mortality necessary to produce specific life expectancies. Definitional problems (life expectancy versus lifespan, for instance) that may have led to different estimates are discussed. For people to achieve a life expectancy at birth of 80 to 120 years, very large declines in mortality would have to be realized. If deaths from cancer were completely eliminated, the life expectancy at birth would only increase by approximately three years for both sexes. Similar statistics are presented for other diseases; even if all circulatory diseases, diabetes, and cancer were eliminated, life expectancy at birth would not exceed 90 years. Although life expectancy is not likely to increase beyond 85 at birth and 35 years at age 50, population aging (the proportion of older people) will double by the latter third of the 21st century. This means that policy should focus on the illnesses and disabilities this group is likely to experience. Several scenarios are possible. For example, people may become severely ill only a short time before they die and may enjoy a more active, healthier life in their 60s and 70s. The medical community should focus its efforts on the diseases that most threaten active aging, to avoid a situation where large numbers of old, unhealthy people drain resources. Current efforts stress living longer, not living longer better. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Models, Evaluation, Complications and side effects, Social policy, Longevity

---

If humans were built to last

Article Abstract:

An exploration is presented of what humans would look like if evolution had created the body to function for more than a hundred years. The human would need larger ears, rewired eyes curved neck, shorter limbs and stature, reversed knee joints and other protective padding to survive and function smoothly.

Analysis, Innovations, Human beings, Evolution (Biology), Evolution, Humans

---

The aging of the human species

Article Abstract:

Policymakers must plan to meet the needs of an aging population and deal with issues such as disability, disease and quality of life. People aged 65 or older accounted for less than 1% of the population in 1900, but that figure rose to 6.2% in 1992.

Social aspects, Planning, Population, Population policy

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: In search of learning organizations: Case experiences from Hong Kong
• Abstracts: Get set for the super disc. Urban oasis. Televison: rear projection slims down
• Abstracts: Cells for Jerry's kids; experts argue the merits and safety of human trials. The future of human evolution
• Abstracts: Three swings: hoping for a home run against multiple sclerosis. Out in the cold
• Abstracts: To protect and self-serve. Access denied. Anonymous Trust

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.