Beyond uncertainty: facing the inconceivable
Article Abstract:
Radical developments, especially in the field of human knowledge, has increasingly led to confrontations with an inconceivable future. Such is the nature of human ingenuity that, what is presently a safe prediction, could turn out to be radically different. Modern day discoveries, which include such realities as pre-set gender at conception, cloning of humans and other genetic manipulation techniques, have no counterpart in human history and are forcing the race to consider an inconceivable future.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
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The prospects for accuracy and completeness in forecasting
Article Abstract:
Forecasting will continue to evolve into a more scientific endeavor. The practice, which is nearly all economics, will improve to encompass such fields as psychology, neuro-psychiatry, judgment heuristics, morals and ethics, intuitive decision-making and risks assessment. It will also encompass the concept of uncertainty, which stems from such factors as system complexity, intrusion of the unexpected and noise and is considered the origin of risk.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Extrapolation without understanding
Article Abstract:
Determining the direction of technological developments in the early part of the 21st century will not require the use of any sophisticated forecasting technique because experts are already in agreement on the next phase of development. The problem with extrapolating for technological innovations in the next century will come from researchers who, being reluctant to give up obsolete models, will continue to apply them to empirical data.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
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