Can graphology predict occupational success? Two empirical studies and some methodological ruminations

Article Abstract:

Two empirical studies for testing the validity of graphological predictions are reported. In the first, the graphologists rated bank employees on several job relevant traits, based on handwritten biographies. The scripts were also rated on the same traits by a clinical psychologist with no knowledge of graphology. The criterion was the ratings on the same traits by the employees' supervisors. The graphologists' and the clinician's correlations with the criterion were typically between 0.2 and 0.3. To test whether these validities might be attributable to the scripts' content, we developed a third method of prediction. The information in the texts (e.g., education) was systematically extracted and combined in a linear model. This model outperformed the human judges. In the second study, graphologists were asked only to judge the profession, out of 8 possibilities, of 40 successful professionals. This was done on the basis of rich (e.g., containing numbers and Latin script as well as Hebrew text), though uniform, scripts. The graphologists did not perform significantly better than a chance model. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Usage, Forecasts and trends, Business success, Penmanship, Vocational interests, Graphology

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Psychophysiological detection through the Guilty Knowledge Technique: effects of mental countermeasures

Article Abstract:

The effects of mental countermeasures on the efficiency of pscyhophysiological detection with the Guilty Knowledge Technique were examined in a mock-crime experiment with 4 groups of participants: innocent participants who were not involved in the mock crime, guilty controls who committed the mock crime but received no countermeasure instructions, guilty participants who received countermeasure instructions, and guilty participants who received countermeasure instructions and were allowed to practice the countermeasures. The countermeasure instructions encouraged participants to recall emotional situations from their past and imagine themselves in these situations during presentation of irrelevant questions. Results revealed a significant reduction in electrodermal detection efficiency under the 2 countermeasure conditions with no differences between them. No countermeasures effects were observed with the respiration line length measure. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Research, Testing, Physiological aspects, Guilt, Guilt (Psychology), Deception

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Misconceptions in Martin and Terris's (1991) "Predicting Infrequent Behavior: Clarifying the Impact on False-Positive Rates"

Article Abstract:

Martin and Terris (1991) recently attributed to a number of psychologists a concept they called the false-positive argument (FPA), according to which a test should not be used if an individual who fails is more likely to be qualified than unqualified, and they attempted to clarify the conditions under which the FPA may be appropriate. We argue that in none of the articles cited by Martin and Terris is the FPA truly posited and also that they failed to clarify the conditions under which the FPA might be appropriate. These conditions depend on the costs and payoffs associated with the various outcomes of the decision problem, as we demonstrate through the use of a threshold utility model. Finally, the examples used by Martin and Terris deal with the detection of deception but were discussed without proper consideration of the contexts in which lie-detection techniques are typically used. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Methods, Evaluation, Psychological tests, Psychology, Applied, Applied psychology, Lie detectors and detection, Lie detector tests

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