Correlation of eyewitness accuracy and confidence: optimality hypothesis revisited

Article Abstract:

Inasmuch as a completely satisfactory estimate of effect size for the eyewitness accuracy-confidence relation does not exist, we conducted a meta-analysis of 35 staged-event studies. Estimated r = .25 (d = .52), with a 95 percent confidence interval of .08 to .42. Sampling error accounted for 52 percent of the variation in r, leaving room for measurement error and possibly moderator variables to account for the remaining variation. Further analysis identified duration of target face exposure as a moderator variable, providing support for Deffenbacher's (1980) optimality hypothesis. When corrected for the attenuating effect of sampling error in the accuracy-confidence correlations, the correlation of exposure duration and the accuracy-confidence correlation was .51: Longer exposures allowed for greater predictability of accuracy from confidence. Even though correction for unreliability in the confidence measure produces a higher estimate of the population correlation of accuracy and confidence, .34, one must be cautious in assessing the utility of confidence for predicting accuracy in actual cases. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Analysis, Reliability, Reliability (Trustworthiness), Psychology, Applied, Applied psychology, Confidence intervals

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Eyewitness identification accuracy, confidence, and decision times in simultaneous and sequential lineups

Article Abstract:

Eyewitness identification accuracy was investigated in simultaneous and sequential lineups. Seventy-two subjects watched a film of a robbery in a public park under incidental learning conditions and returned to the laboratory the following day to answer questions about the film. Sequential lineup procedures led to significantly fewer false identifications than the simultaneous lineup mode, with comparable performance in detecting the perpetrator in target-present conditions. Alternative methods for analyzing confidence and decision times in sequential lineups are presented which allow for more fine-grained analyses of the relationships between accuracy, confidence, and decisions times both between and within subjects. Distinguishing betwee choosers and nonchoosers, these analyses show the predictive utility of decision times and confidence as assessment variables. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Identification, Identification (Physical)

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Accuracy of confidence ratings associated with general knowledge and eyewitness memory

Article Abstract:

The confidence-accuracy (C-A) relation for general knowledge (GK) and eyewitness memory (EM) was compared in both within- and between-subjects analyses. Researchers in the cognitive tradition tend to use within-subjects designs and to find moderately positive C-A relations, whereas those in the forensic tradition tend to use between-subjects designs and to find no relation. Eighty subjects took part in one of two conditions - EM or GK. No difference between conditions was found on the within-subjects measure of the C-A relation, but there was differentiation with a between-subjects measure. There was a strong positive C-A relation (r=.58,p<. 01) for GK but not for EM (r=-.11,ns). One source of this difference may be the differing opportunities for calibration offered by the two kinds of memory. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Memory, Cognitive psychology

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