A general hypothesis of aggregated expectations
Article Abstract:
The aggregated expectation concept states that the final outcome of an issue, which can be either political or economic, will be decided by the expectations of the affected populations whose combined decision will influence the outcome. The hypothesis provides a novel technique for examining the likelihood of a future event based on individual decisions. The aggregated expectation hypothesis also considers the influence of a number of powerful players, such as governments, in influencing those futures.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1997
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Counter-trends and potential trend conversions in the early twenty-first century
Article Abstract:
The science of forecasting requires viewing possible future scenarios as results of the conversion of a trend or a counter-trend in areas of human activity. A minimum of three trend conversions presents themselves as future turning points in such activities. These include a move from the search for information to addiction, overload and eventual aversion, from technological knowhow to technological illiteracy and from the creation of a global economy to the perpetuation of increasing barriers to trade.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
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Determining aggregated expectations of future outcomes
Article Abstract:
A novel research technique for investigating global long-term trends has been devised based on the theory that the expectation of managers have a significant effect on combined individual actions. This technique can be used to obtain a knowledge of those expectations which can then be used as a guide for future actions. A total of 162 dimensions were discovered at the qualitative stage and were subsequently tested on representatives from over 150 organizations.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1997
User Contributions:
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