Hurricane heat engines
Article Abstract:
It has been possible to develop a model which gives very accurate retrospective simulations of hurricane intensity changes. A basic, time-dependent model representing the hurricane as a totally circular vortex moving along a pre-defined track was used. The initial condition of the model is amended to match the observed intensity, and the rate at which this intensity alters, at the beginning of the forecast. The model's success is based on the reduced heat supply as the surface water cools in response to the storm.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1999
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Predicting hurricane tracks
Article Abstract:
The inverse method of forecasting the movements of hurricanes is both less complicated and more accurate than the standard initialization or statistical methods. Hurricane data from the south China Sea were used to test the techniques. Inverse analysis relies on a dynamical model that incorporates boundary conditions and other data. At 24 hours the inverse method had produced a 14% enhancement over existing techniques, falling to 10% at 48 hours.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1992
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Predicting with unpredictability
Article Abstract:
Stochastic simulation is used to study a wide variety of problems, ranging from the economy to medicine, and from traffic flow to biochemistry or the physics of matter. The term 'stochastic' encompasses a variety of techniques that are based on a common feature using unpredictable entities, random numbers to make predictions possible.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 2005
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