A faulty speedometer is no excuse

Article Abstract:

It is becoming both easier and more important for companies to analyze their markets and industries. Separating cyclical sensitivity from longer-term trends, and combining econometric modeling and life-cycle analysis allows a clearer view of both cycles and trends. Mobay Corp faces the problems of a maturing US chemical industry, and has developed a 'speedometer' to measure the slowing process. Four examples of situations in which Mobay management examines the relative speed of maturity onset are: (1) capacity planning, (2) performance analysis, (3) business cycle turning points, and (4) people planning. A six-step process is used by Mobay to estimate its business life-cycle position: (1) understanding dependent variables, (2) selecting independent variables, (3) constructing a composite, (4) running a regression calculation, (5) interpreting results, and (6) predicting the future.

Analysis, Business cycles, Mobay Corp.

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Future mapping: a new approach to managing strategic uncertainty

Article Abstract:

Unforeseen changes can undermine or invalidate assumptions in corporate strategic planning and investment. Three ways of handling uncertainty are: (1) reacting to situations as they occur, (2) developing improved forecasts, and (3) mapping a logical, identifiable path from current conditions to possible future ones. A process of 'future mapping' is described which is based on 'end state' and 'event stream' concepts. The event stream hypothesizes what may occur, and the end state represents the results to which these events may lead. Examining these possibilities can help managers avoid the danger of losses.

Usage, Forecasting, Change, Change (Philosophy)

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