Forecasting foreign exchange rates

Article Abstract:

The three models used in forecasting foreign exchange rates are the Box-Jenkins, the econometric and the forward rate. A study was conducted to determine which among the three is most accurate in predicting future foreign exchange rates. Data used for the study were records of exchange rates for each month between the US dollar and British pound from Jan 1983 to Dec 1987. The records were lifted from the International Monetary Fund periodical, International Financial Statistics. Findings revealed that the Box-Jenkins model provides the most reliable exchange rate forecasts.

Finance, taxation, & monetary policy, Research, International Monetary Fund, Prices and rates, Foreign exchange, Foreign exchange rates, Periodicals, Foreign exchange market, Currency swaps

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Forecasting corporate bankruptcy: do it yourself

Article Abstract:

Techniques used by financial analysts for predicting bankruptcy suffer from many flaws such as depending on a single financial ratio type and being subjectto subjective interpretations. However, a Z-score predictive model based on multiple discriminant analysis and eight financial variables can be used to produce more meaningful results. It runs on a special Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet template which can be used following simple instructions. Forecast accuracy ranges between 80% to 90% depending on time variables.

Prepackaged software, Analysis, Bankruptcy, Projective techniques, Lotus 1-2-3 (Spreadsheet software)

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Forecasting with Excel

Article Abstract:

Methods of forecasting using the computer program Excel are discussed. Particular attention is given to the techniques of moving average, exponential smoothing and linear regression forecasting. It is concluded that Excel can be useful in applying the three forecasting methods.

Software, Forecasting, Microsoft Excel (Spreadsheet software)

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