Growth market forecasting revisited: a look back at a look forward

Article Abstract:

This study examines the accuracy of growth market forecasts published in the business press between 1960 and 1979. Many of these forecasts failed because they did not consider fundamental aspects of the markets they sought to serve but were enamored of the underlying technologies or unduly swayed by the 'spirit of the times.' Successful forecasts were based on simple, but correct, assumptions regarding the future and focused on costs and performance advantages. This article presents categories describing the general reasons why some forecasts succeeded, while others failed, and offers some guidelines for managers to better assess current predictions of market growth and to avoid the pitfalls of the past. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Forecasts and trends, Marketing

---

Five modern lessons from a 55-year-old technological forecast

Article Abstract:

The accuracy in prediction of the 13 major innovations published on July 18, 1937 by the National Resources Committee on the Social Implications of New Inventions, were evaluated. Six of the innovaations made global significant impact in the early 20th century such as the telephone, motion picturs, automobiles, airplane, rayon and the radio. The accuracy of the 1937 forecast was attributed to its realistic approach, lesser emphasis on social impact, avoidance of nationalism and a thorough assessment of existing technologies.

Technological innovations

---

Bringing judgment into combination forecasts

Article Abstract:

The advantages of combining judgmental forecasts in operations management with those developed from statistical models are studied. Judgmental forecasts based on knowledge obtained from experience are compared with judgmental forecasts based on knowledge acquired from studying forecasting models and data analysis. Findings indicate that forecasts based on practical experience provide more accuracy.

Analysis, Production management

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: Forecasting foreign exchange rates. Forecasting corporate bankruptcy: do it yourself. Forecasting with Excel
• Abstracts: Fraud on the Market. U.S. Probes Massive Tax Fraud. The scam is in the mail
• Abstracts: Diversified mentoring relationships in organizations: a power perspective. Mentoring alternatives: the role of peer relationships in career development
• Abstracts: The fitful career of advocacy advertising: political protection, client cultivation, and corporate morale. Corporations, communities, and conservation: The Mountain Institute and Antamina Mining Company
• Abstracts: Equity risk premia, corporate profit forecasts, and investor sentiment around the Stock Crash of October 1987

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.