How to use diffusion models in new product forecasting
Article Abstract:
The Logistic and Gompertz diffusion curves are used in forecasting new products with no sales history, forecasting relatively new products with a short history and determining the characteristics of diffusion process based on the history of mature products. The forecasting approach is based on the development of three diffusion characteristics: the long run saturation level, which is the maximum number of a product's units a company can sell at some distant point in the future; the inflection point of the diffusion curve, which represents that month in time where sales will reach its maximum penetration rate; and the delay factor, which indicates the intensity of the introductory stage of the life-cycle.
Publication Name: Journal of Business Forecasting
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0278-6087
Year: 1996
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Ten prescriptions for forecasting success
Article Abstract:
Business forecasting should adapt to the changing needs of those who demand for the service. Prescriptions for effective business forecasting include carefully evaluating projects, incorporating technology, working and planning closely with management, knowledge of the nature of decisions being influenced, and characterizing relevant variables. Using a band of projections and scenario development, establishing a monitoring process, developing specific plans of action, and acquiring general management skills are additional prescriptions.
Publication Name: Journal of Business Forecasting
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0278-6087
Year: 1997
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Forecasting process at Cable & Wirelss BARTEL Limited
Article Abstract:
The forecasting process of Cable & Wireless BARTEL Ltd is centered on judgment. It operates at three levels, namely the corporate strategy level, departmental level, and marketing level. Forecasting at the first level is always aligned with the goal and scope of the organization, while at the second level, forecasting is based on the targets set at the first level. Forecasting at the third level, meanwhile, is mostly quantified. In general, forecasting at all levels are based on the data gathered from direct users.
Publication Name: Journal of Business Forecasting
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0278-6087
Year: 1998
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