Uncertainty and Leontief systems: an application to the selection of space station system designs

Article Abstract:

Uncertainty and Leontief systems are applied to the design of a technologically complex component within an environment with uncertain cost and technological parameters. The selection of the PV or SD energy modules when developing space stations is used as an example. The SD, which has only been applied in the laboratory, is the 'design to cost' winner when technological and cost parameter uncertainty is ignored. When subjective probability distributions are used to define the technological and cost parameters and a 'safety first' model is used, the reliable PV system is chosen.

Decision-making, Decision making, Uncertainty (Information theory)

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Direction of nonstationarity in hydrologic time series

Article Abstract:

It is a major problem when either man or nature can have an effect on the hydrologic time series. The main disadvantages of intervention analysis is that the time element must be a specified time series model. A new technique is presented that tests the model through the use of synthetic un-correlated and correlated information exhibiting small changes and also a real hydrological time series.

Methods, Models, Hydrology, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis, Seasonal variations (Economics)

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Forecasting error evaluation in material requirements planning (MRP) production-inventory systems

Article Abstract:

The article examines the predicted demand and error functions and their relation to the Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Systems. Various areas of concern are evaluated through computer simulation. The research does show that the predicted error, particularly the mean error, will have a major effect on MRP system inventory expenses and shortages.

Usage, Materials research, Production (Economics), Error functions

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