Long-term market overreaction: the effect of low-priced stocks

Article Abstract:

Conrad and Kaul (1993) report that most of De Bondt and Thaler's (1985) long-term overreaction findings can be attributed to a combination of bid-ask effects when monthly cumulative average returns (CARs) are used, and price, rather than prior returns. In direct tests, we find little different in test-period returns whether CARs or buy-and-hold returns are used, and that price has little predictive ability in cross-sectional regressions. The difference in findings between this study and Conrad and Kaul's is primarily due to their statistical methodology. They confound cross-sectional patterns and aggregate time-series mean reversion, and introduce a survivor bias. Their procedures increase the influence of price at the expense of prior returns. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Pricing

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Expectations and the cross-section of stock returns

Article Abstract:

Previous research has shown that stocks with low prices relative to book value, cash flow, earnings, or dividends (that is, value stocks) earn high returns. Value stocks may earn high returns because they are more risky. Alternatively, systematic errors in expectations may explain the high returns earned by value stocks. I test for the existence of systematic errors using survey data on forecasts by stock market analysts. I show that investment strategies that seek to exploit errors in analysts' forecasts earn superior returns because expectations about future growth in earnings are too extreme. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

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On stock market returns and monetary policy

Article Abstract:

Financial economists have long debated whether monetary policy is neutral. This article addresses this question by examining how stock return data respond to monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy is measured by innovations in the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves, by narrative indicators, and by an event study of Federal Reserve policy changes. In every case the evidence indicates that expansionary policy increases ex-post stock returns. Results from estimating a multi-factor model also indicate that exposure to monetary policy increases an asset's ex-ante return. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Monetary policy

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