An evaluation of Federal Reserve forecasting: comment
Article Abstract:
The Federal Reserve System's forecasts for 1965-1986 were tested by Jansen and Kishan (JK) using the current and one quarter ahead predictions for the said time period. JK concluded that forecasts of inflation seem unbiased and that there was misforecasting by the Fed of current quarter output growth. Joutz and Stekler made a similar evaluation of the forecasts. Their results are in direct conflict with JK's analysis. They note that JK's conclusions should not have stated that the Fed's forecasts were biased and that predictions on inflation were efficient.
Publication Name: Journal of Macroeconomics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0164-0704
Year: 1999
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An evaluation of Federal Reserve forecasting: reply
Article Abstract:
Joutz and Stekler (JS) commented on Jansen and Kishan's (JK) study on Fed forecasting saying the results they derived differed from those of JK. JS point out that they used different data and specifications. Aside from differences in data, methodologies employed were not exactly the same. These result in differences in conclusions. As to which forecast series is better in predicting Fed forecasting, it remains an open question.
Publication Name: Journal of Macroeconomics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0164-0704
Year: 1999
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Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
An evaluation of Federal Reserve forecasting
Article Abstract:
The accuracy, reliability and efficiency of Federal Reserve System (Fed) 'green book' forecasts are studied. Fed forecasts are the basis of policy decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee. It is shown that from Dec. 1965 to Dec. 1986, current quarter unemployment, current quarter output growth and one-quarter-ahead unemployment forecasts were biased. Improvements for Fed forecasts are also discussed.
Publication Name: Journal of Macroeconomics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0164-0704
Year: 1996
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