Consumption smoothing and the current account: evidence for France 1970-1996

Article Abstract:

The French economy has generally improved as evidenced by its over-all GDP deficit rate of about 0.4% in 1991. This trend has continued to show further improvement from 1993 until 1996. A statistical model has been constructed, to provide an in-depth explanation of this economic trend, based on the principles of simple consumption-smoothing. Research data, which were largely based on income and relative price variables, did not provide the anticipated explanation for the development of the French economic trend.

Economic Statistics & Research, Gross Domestic Product, Models, Economic aspects, France, Economic conditions, Consumption (Economics), Economic forecasting

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The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: Balance of payment

Article Abstract:

A huge set of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) balance of payments projections went through a series of tests for accuracy, error diagnostics and rationality. It was found that the OECD is less effective in predicting balance of payments variables than demand, output and prices. There is marked volatility in the accuracy with which various balance of payments variables are predicted for various G7 countries.

Balance of Payments Policy, Balance of payments, Monetary policy, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Group of 7

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