On the structural stability of trade equations: the case of Japan

Article Abstract:

Japan's trade equations between 1986 to 1983 reveals the existence of parameter instability for total imports, bilateral exports and bilateral imports. These instabilities were most prevalent during the early part of 1986, when significant alterations in the effects of specific explanatory variables. The analysis further notes the trend acceleration which took place in the latter part of the 1980s that resulted in a positive gap between actual imports and one-step forecasts. Bilateral imports also suffered from the same fate, as a result of industrial production.

Foreign Trade (Exports & Imports), Analysis, Japan, Exports, Imports

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Measurement of the unexpected US trade deficit

Article Abstract:

Trade deficit announcements significantly affect trade deficit expectations. This was gleaned from an analysis of monthly announcements of the US' overall and bilateral balance of trade data and revisions of previous announcements from 1980 until 1992. Specifically, the Canadian dollar and some stock market indexes are substantially affected by unexpected bilateral trade deficit announcements and revisions of previous announcements which are issued at the same time as the overall balance of trade.

United States, Measurement, Statistics, Balance of trade

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HICs' optimal trade openness and the modelling of the default penalty

Article Abstract:

Aizenman's proposal to increase the level of trade openness of highly indebted countries (HICs) proved to be not highly optimal from the creditor's point of view. A modelling of the default penalty imposed on debtors during no-repayment states revealed that instead of Aizenman's proposal, the reverse would be more ideal for creditors. Such revelation implies that creditor nations have to undertake more work before coming up with any general policy recommendations.

Public Finance Activities, National Government Liabilities & Debt, Economic aspects, National debt, Debtor and creditor, Credit market, Credit markets, Default (Finance)

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