Availability of information and the aggregation of confidence in prior decisions
Article Abstract:
An examination of the influence of availability of information on judgments about single items (SIJs) and judgments about sets of items (AIJs) found the dual-source hypothesis as the best explanation for the aggregation effect. The aggregation effect refers to the observation that judgments about aggregate performance are consistently lower in magnitude than confidence-judgments about single items. Two studies were conducted, where aggregation effects were found to be consistent when each SIJ condition was compared to the corresponding AIJ condition. Either kind of judgment was not significantly affected by availability of information.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1996
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Beliefs about overconfidence, including its cross-national variation
Article Abstract:
An empirical evaluation on 109 Taiwan Chinese at Chung Yuan University and 141 Americans at the University of Michigan was carried out to explore overconfidence. Subjects were tested using one approach in which the word 'overconfidence' was defined to the subjects, and another in which the word was not clearly used at all. Results indicate Taiwan Chinese subjects were about twice as likely as the Americans to expect Taiwanese to exhibit greater overconfidence, and about half as likely to expect people in both nations to be equally overconfident.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1996
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
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