The accuracy of future forecasts and past judgements
Article Abstract:
The accuracy of future forecasts compared to past judgements is studied in two experiments using undergraduate students of an Ohio University. The first experiment used 106 subjects and the second experiment used 61 subjects. Results indicate that there is a difference in accuracy in forecasting future events over past judgments. Those who assigned probabilities for future events were more accurate over those who created probabilities on past judgments.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1993
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The influence of alternative outcomes on gut-level perceptions of certainty
Article Abstract:
Research describing the results of three experiments studying the relationship between alternative evidence and the distribution of evidence across alternatives in perceiving a focal point is presented. The influence of the evidence in support of the strongest alternative is stressed.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 2001
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The binary additivity of subjective probability does not indicate the binary complementarity of perceived certainty
Article Abstract:
Issues concerning the additivity of probability estimates and the complementarity of internal perceptions of certainty are discussed.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 2000
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