The false consensus effect and overconfidence: flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment?

Article Abstract:

A strong positive correlation exists between the degree to which people believe that a majority of others are like them and their accuracy in predicting others' responses. The correlation is observed whether it is evaluated within items across people, across items within people or across items across people. This was found in an examination of the use of the false consensus effect and the overconfidence in judgment effect. Findings do not support acceptance of both 'biases' as facts.

Psychological aspects, Judgment, Judgment (Psychology)

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Subadditivity in memory for personal events

Article Abstract:

Research was conducted to examine the hypothesis that superadditivity would be expected if a single event is decomposed into two or more high-frequency events. A sample of 231 subjects participated in the experiment wherein the high- and low-frequency component events were distinguished. Results indicate that the arbitrary choice of the specificity with which questions are asked can generate widely different reports for the same composite events.

Memory, Experience

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Underweighting alternatives and overconfidence

Article Abstract:

A study of a subject's overconfidence in a hypothesis was found to be a function of the perception of the alternative to the hypothesis. Evidences against and for the alternative governs confidence in the hypothesis. Simulation studies validate this conclusion, with various degree of underweighing the strengths of alternative produced a bias for the hypothesis.

Consumer Behavior, Analysis, Consumer confidence, Perception, Perception (Psychology)

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