The yield curve as an electoral bellwether
Article Abstract:
A mathematical model to forecast election results earlier than previous models is developed based on the electoral results from 1952 to 1992. The forecasting model is different from other models because of the use of interest rate variables one year before the election and the use of a simultaneous equation framework that allows the analysis of the links between interest rates, economic growth, inflation and presidential approval.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1996
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Generational billows? A comment on Mallmann-Lemarchand
Article Abstract:
Mallmann and Lemarchand's finding that billows, which refers to long-run pulsations in human behavior, can be explained by a simple differential difference equation system is not as reliable as they claim. First, the conceptual integrity of their billow formulation is not as established as what other alternatives have. Second, their concept of societal motivational concerns lacks accuracy and may not be operationalized.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1998
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A pacemaker for the long wave
Article Abstract:
Long waves in the US economy are examined in terms of economic growth, inflation, and the impact of technological change.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 2000
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- Abstracts: The global city of the 21st century. A new international environmental order in the making. Environmental, demographic and territorial dimensions of sustainable development
- Abstracts: The World Wide Web as neural net: implications for market-driven web enabling. Strategically evolving the future: directed evolution and technological systems development
- Abstracts: The World Social Forum: An open space or a movement of movements? The Tobin tax: a new phase in the politics of globalization?
- Abstracts: Beyond contractual interpretation: bias in arbitrators' case perceptions and award recommendations. The paradox of self-management: individual and group autonomy in work groups
- Abstracts: Wage spillovers in public sector contract negotiations: the importance of social comparisons. Enterprise zones and local employment: evidence from the states' programs