The social implications of planning: How public predictions bias future plans

Article Abstract:

Self-presentation motives exerted a sizeable influence on the planning fallacy and the desire to present a favorable impression to others contributes to the generation of unrealistically optimistic forecasts. The results suggest that if increasing accountability by making predictions publicly also increases self-presentation concerns and it actually exacerbate the planning fallacy by motivating people to over promise.

Responsibility, Self-presentation, Self presentation, Procrastination

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Team allegiance can lead to both optimistic and pessimistic predictions

Article Abstract:

An experiment to show that team allegiance can sometimes increase pessimism is conducted. Results show that team allegiance inflated the optimism of participants about their teammates winning the easy categories, but deflated the optimism regarding their teammates winning the hard categories.

Prediction theory

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Making sense of failure: a motivated model of hindsight bias

Article Abstract:

Defensive processing and retroactive pessimism theories of hindsight bias are examined and a 'motivated sense-making' model is proposed as a possible similar common pathway for the two processes.

Models, Hindsight bias

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