Complex dynamics and control of arms race

Article Abstract:

A nonlinear discrete-time arms model was developed for the local bifurcation analysis of asymmetric, nonlinear armament strategies for the Richardson-type arms race model involving two nations. Local bifurcation analysis indicated the role of nonlinearity and asymmetry in a Richardson-type-model in promoting unpredictable time paths for the military expenses of participating nations. Periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic system dynamics also occurred under conditions in which both participating nations were characterized under similar parameters.

Operations Research, Analysis, Arms control

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Student t-tests and compound tests to detect transients in simulated time series

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze a test for detecting transients in simulation output based on the Student t-test. The independence of the t-test was examined to construct compound initialization bias tests. The tests were then evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicated that the effect of initialization bias on higher-order moments is significant in a host of practical problems.

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Chaos and nonlinear dynamics in financial and nonfinancial time series: evidence from Finland

Article Abstract:

Finnish monthly data for 10 macroeconomic time series from 1920-1994 were analyzed. Tests included standard diagnostic tests and developments in modelling nonlinearities which use long-memory and assymetric adjustment models in chaos theory. Evidence strongly supports the existence of nonlinearities in Finnish economic time series while doubting the presence of chaos.

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