Incorporating climate change into risk assessment using grey mathematical programming

Article Abstract:

A model using grey programming (GP) is applicable to risk assessment procedures based on climate change uncertainties, which cannot be analyzed through stochastic or fuzzy quantification. The GP model allows comparison of the importance of climatic uncertainty with other uncertainties involved. The model decreases the computational requirements, and does away with the need for distribution information for model parameters, thus making the technique more practical. A hop, skip, and jump formulation of GP is used to analyze the expansion of forestry and agriculture in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Analysis

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Editorial: climate change and variability, uncertainty and decision-making

Article Abstract:

Climate change which has impelled weather variability and uncertainity is affecting world policy making in the economic and political arenas. Extreme weather events are being linked to global climate change caused by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gas. These changes are difficult to predict due to the uncertainties involved in generating stable long-term statistics of weather variables. A 1994 workshop organized in Canada brought policy makers and scientists together to explore new ways of addressing climate extremes with the focus on weather variability and uncertainity.

Measurement, Statistics, Environmental aspects, Precipitation variability

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Combination of differentiated prediction approach and interval analysis for the prediction of weather variables under uncertainty

Article Abstract:

A combination of differentiated prediction model (DPM) and interval analysis can effectively predict weather variables under uncertainty. The DPM is employed for general trend prediction, while interval analysis is used for describing the seasonal variations and residual terms. The combination has the advantage of low computational requirements, and can be extended to other cases also. These results are based on a case study of predictions for monthly average temperature and precipitation in Wuhan, China, based on 22 years of observation data.

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