Looking back at forecasting

Article Abstract:

An examination of the history of forecasting reveals that some prediction techniques used by shamans and other ancient people are still being used today in the business setting. For instance, the shaman's gift of thoughts, dreams and imagination are actually the antiquated counterparts of today's new ideas, inventions and discoveries that somebody's imagination generates. It is also telling that the struggle between shamans and kings is quite similar to the power conflict seen between today's forecasters and the CEO. The issues of who is responsible and who is to blame are still hot topics of debate. Aside from these, it should be noted that ancient forecasters relied on weak cause-and-effect relationships to make their predictions just as their modern counterparts do. Inductive methods, activist methods and imaginary methods are likewise being applied to modern forecasting.

History, Forecasting

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Is forecasting a waste of time?

Article Abstract:

Business forecasting has been unfairly dismissed by executives as an unreliable management tool. The reason for this negative response toward forecasting is that it is commonly evaluated in terms of forecast errors. However, appraising forecasts solely on the basis of their accuracy is a mistake. Instead, forecasting should be compared to the absence of forecasting, an undertaking of which will show that predictions have useful strategic roles. They provide alternative futures, persuade managers of the need for change and serve as a learning experience for managers. Moreover, forecasts have a ritualistic purpose in organizations. In view of these roles, forecasting should be evaluated based on its relationship to corporate planning and decision making.

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