Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting
Article Abstract:
Three separate studies were done with meteorologists to determine the effect of increased information on the accuracy of their forecasts. Several measures of forecast skill were used and subjects were divided into four different information conditions. Results from all studies revealed that forecasting skill improved as the amount of information increased. However, the reliability of the forecast and skill of the meteorologist were reduced upon the addition of information.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1992
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The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment
Article Abstract:
Task properties play a major role in determining differential accuracy of expert judgment. A study from a weather forecasting sector provides insights to accuracy, reliability, and disagreement in judgment using nonlinear and configural analysis models. Accuracy and agreement are high when forecast activities are provided with high quality information and effective forecasting models. Likewise, disagreements specifically relate to task predictability.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1997
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Forecasting solar flares: experts and artificial systems
Article Abstract:
A study was conducted to compare the abilities of computers and humans in predicting the occurrence of solar flares. The rarity of solar flares made it difficult to measure such abilities. To alleviate this problem, the judgments were weighed based on historical frequency. Results showed that humans performed as well as their electronic counterparts in predicting solar flares.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1992
User Contributions:
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